I have written here in almost a year now, but this is my last post. From now on I will blog for lifeedge.se. Follow me here.
Falkenbergs FF hosts Hammarby IF tonight in the Swedish second league (Superettan) and I have a strong feeling that there will be goals here.
Falkenberg has done tremendously well so far with three straight wins (2-0, 2-1, 1-0). Thus, they have scored in each game (veteran striker Stefan Rodevåg has scored three!) but only conceded once. Statistically the over bet seems stupid here, but I believe that Hammarby will find the net tonight!
Hammarby has a very strong team on paper, but they usually have great problems to use all the skills in their squad. This season they started with two drawn games (0-0 and 1-1), but got an impressive win against Örebro (2-1) in their last game. Importantly the reports from the game say that striker partners Billy Schuler and Erik Sundin played well and Sundin found the net once. I have a strong feeling that Sundin will continue to do well here.
My guess tonight is 2-2, but I will not be surprised if one of the teams find the goals three times tonight!
Because of the results so far the over bet is well played tonight, and I see value here. I place one unit on over three goals (Asian). I think that the pitch is in doubtful conditions in Falkenberg and that is why I only place one unit (moreover the allowed wager is limited at MarathonBet).
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Game: Falkenberg – Hammarby
Bet: Over 3.0 goals (Asian line)
Odds: 2.875 (MarathonBet)
Wager: 1 unit (of 4)
Results:
Units in total: -4.16
ROI: 96.41%
Total wins-voids-losses: 24-4-24
On Saturday Crewe Alexandra host Walsall in the last league game of the season. No team have anything important to play for and therefore Crewe will play their academy side.
Crewe are known for a good academy, but the value must be on Walsall now!? (With that said the game must be played and there is of course not guaranteed that Walsall will ‘do their best’ under such special circumstances…)
The prices for Walsall have dropped, but I placed a draw no bet on Walsall at 1.65 based purely on this information. Walsall have played far too many drawn games recently and that is why I have chosen the DnB option.
More about the game can for example be found here, here and here.
Thanks @bandytipset for the information.
Slow activity from me lately, but there will be large changes soon. I will of course mention that here when it happens…
Tomorrow the first leg in the second semi final in Champions League takes place in Dortmund when Real Madrid visit Westfalenstadion. Both teams have great offensive qualities and I strongly believe that we will see some goals here. The bookies offer surprisingly high prices on the over market. I have chosen the ordinary 2.5 line to 1.72, but was considering the 2.75 and 3 Asian lines as well. For comparison the bookies offer around 1.55 for the BTTS-bet.
Since this is the first game of two there is always a risk of cautious play, but I cannot see BvB play differently than usual.
The Mario Götze affair could perhaps affect the minds of the Dortmund players, but the importance of the game should prevent that from happening.
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Game: Borussia Dortmund – Real Madrid
Bet: Over 2.5 goals
Odds: 1.72 (Betsson or Pinnacle Sports)
Wager: 2 units (of 4)
Results: 4-1, +1.44 units
Units in total: -4.16
ROI: 96.41%
Total wins-voids-losses: 24-4-24
Ryssby managed to get a point yesterday (1-1) despite big pressure from Sandsbro in the second half. That was a pity for my pick, but I still think that 1.85 for a home victory was heavily overpriced.
Today I was first going to pick from from the lower divisions in Sweden again. Lindsdal is believed to be one of the top teams in Division 2 Södra Götaland this season and today they host Nike, a teams that lost at home to Ljungby in the first round and is believed to fight to avoid relegation.
However, I read that Lindsdal have had problem with sickness in the team and therefore I avoid the game. No Pick of the day today then.
I have a few tips today (some are my own and some are others thoughts that I have backed) that haven’t qualified as a Pick of the day (my stats at these picks are better though…):
Norwich -1 (Asian handicap) @2.38
Over 2.5 in Grosseto – Livorno @1.94
Söderköping to beat Gullringen at home @1.95
My old friend Daniel Nilsson has found a very good bet on Friday. Ryssby have lost almost all their players from last year and are tipped to struggle heavily this season. Moreover, class forward Dennis Martinsson will miss the first two games of the season and there should be very good value in a Sandsbro win.
Here are Daniels last three tweets (in Swedish, use a translator if needed):
In och fynda alla! 1.85 på Sandsbro mot Ryssby i div 4 Småland Sydvästra premiären! Ryssby kommer få riktiga problem denna säsong! >>>
Man har endast kvar 3-4 spelare från förra året! Enda riktigt bra spelaren Dennis Martinsson bommar de 2 inledande matcherna! >>>
Sista halvtimmen varje träning spelar vi mot just Ryssby & jag kan säga att det blir nog ingen rolig säsong för dem! 😦 Håll koll på Ryssby
I have no idea about Sandsbro’s strength yet and will stick to 2.5 units.
UPDATE:
- A friend of mine who plays for Ryssby texts me that the odds is fantastic. He reckons reckons the chance of a Sandsbro win is around 90%!
- Odds down to 1.65. I think that there is value in that too.
- Sandsbro won their last friendly away to Forsheda (the game was played in Värnamo) with 1-0. Coach Thomas Andersson sums it up as a solid team performance. Overall Sandsbro have shown decent results in the friendlies.
- Thursday morning and the price for a Sandsbro win is down at 1.55.
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Game: Sandsbro – Ryssby
Bet: Sandsbro win
Odds: 1.85 (NordicBet)
Wager: 2.5 units (of 4)
Results: 1-1, -2.5 units
Units in total: -5.60
ROI: 95.04%
Total wins-voids-losses: 23-4-24
The Swedish women top league (Damallsvenskan) has started and today two of the top ranked teams have their first game. The difference between the top teams and the rest in Damallsvenskan is huge and I pick LdB Malmö and Tyresö to be ahead already in half time.
The main reason for my pick is that Unibet (as usual) pays much higher for HT bets than other bookies. Unibet has 1.33 for Malmö HT, whereas Nordicbet only has 1.16. Tyresö HT is payed at 1.45 by Unibet, but 1.40 by Nordicbet and 1.37 by MarathonBet.
I see great value in this bet, but stick to one unit only since this is the first game of the season and there might be a great risk of some shaky nerves in the first half .
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Game(s): Women: LdB Malmö – Jitex & Tyresö – Umeå
Bet: Double: LdB HT & Tyresö HT
Odds: 1.93 (Unibet)
Wager: 1 units (of 4)
Results: (HT) 0-0 and 1-0, -1 units
Units in total: -3.10
ROI: 97.19%
Total wins-voids-losses: 23-4-23
My bets for the weekend are presented below. See here as well for the pick of the day on Saturday.
Oskarshamn – Sölvesborg: Home win @1.57. 2u/4u. Bwin. Result: 1-0, +1.14 units
Millwall – Wigan: Wigan -1 @2.63. 2u/4u. Pinnacle. Result: 0-2, +3.26 units
Nike – Ljungby: Ljungby DnB @2.10. 1u/4u. Bet365. Result: 1-3: +1.10 units
Augsburg – E Frankfurt: Over 2.5 @2.15. 1u/4u. Unibet. Result: 2-0, -1 unit
Ath Bilbao – Real Madrid: RM -1 @1.88. 3u/4u. Pinnacle. Result: 0-3, +2.64 units
Total result: +7.14 units
Moreover I have two bets from Israel on MarathonBet to great prices. Marathon does not allow large wagers however.
H Tel Aviv – M Haifa: Haifa DnB @2.28. MarathonBet. Result: 2-2, void
Bnei Yehuda – Maccabi Tel Aviv: MTA -1 @2.48. MarathonBet. Result: 2-2, loss
Oskarshamns AIK is the favourite team to win Division 2 Södra Götaland in Sweden. At home they are believed to win most games on their artificial grass pitch. Tomorrow they host Sölvesborgs GoIF, who are tipped to struggle for relegation. Here three tipsters out of three place them in the bottom position of the league.
Bwin pays 1.57 for a straight home win and I believe that this price is way too high. Other bookies have prices around 1.35. I stick to two units only since this is the first round in the league, but there are certainly more value in this price!
UPDATE:
Bwin changed their price for OAIK to 1.33 directly after my bet. At the moment BetVictor pays 1.50. I know nothing about that bookmaker though. Unibet pays 1.40, and I see some value in that bet too.
I have also placed one unit on Ljungby IF DnB away to Nike in the same league. Bet365 pays 2.10, which is good in my opinion. Ljungby lost to Nike (2-1) during the winter friendlies, but have got a lot of injured players back since then.
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Game: Oskarshamns AIK – Sölvesborgs GoIF
Bet: Oskarshamn win
Odds: 1.57 (Bwin)
Wager: 2 units (of 4)
Result: 1-0, +1.14 units
Units in total: -2.10
ROI: 98.08%
Total wins-voids-losses: 23-4-23
I am on the airport on my way home from Tel Aviv. Is has been a great weekend with Maccabi – Hapoel as the best part! Here are a few pictures.
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- Enyeama and Prica are encouraged before the derby.
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- Part of the Tel Baruch Beach
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- A fisherman close to the city centre.
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- Nice place to play the drums!
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- Hapoel fans before the game.
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- Maccabi fans before the game.
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- Maccabi’s coaching staff. Observe the Swedish flag…
Football thoughts from Sweden 