Pick of the day #33: Borussia Dortmund – Fortuna Düsseldorf

My picks pre-game are not going well at the moment. Yesterday I was wrong again, but there were some big chances in the game and both teams should have scored. Especially Winterhur who missed a penalty in the second half. Today I will go for Borussia Dortmund. They haven’t failed me so far.

Tonight they play Fortuna Düsseldorf. This is Dortmund’s third game in seven days, a fact that might influence their ability. Moreover, their next game is away to Bayern Munich on Saturday and perhaps they looking too much towards that game. Coach Jürgen Klopp denies that this is the case, but we heard that before from coaches. I hope they will continue their good spell in first half though and pick over 1.5 goals (both teams) in half time. Nordicbet offers 2.02 for this pick, and I see great value in that price. I pick the over bet instead of a handicap bet to account for a non-focused home side. I see a risk/chance of an early away goal and 1-1 in the first half, but I really think that Dortmund will score twice in first half.

In their last three games Dortmund have exploded in the first half. There have been three first half goals in the last two games and four in the game before that. In their six home games in the league this season they have scored eight goals and conceded two. I hope they will continue to play offensive in first half and believe that there will be at least two goals early in the game.

However, Fortuna Düsseldorf have a strong team defensively. In their six away games in the league they have scored four first half goals and only conceded twice. They have had one more resting day than Dortmund since their last game.

From Borussia Dortmund’s home page I find the following information:

Borussia Dortmund’s possible eleven: Weidenfeller – Piszczek, Subotic, Hummels, Schmelzer – Gündogan (Kehl, Leitner), Bender – Blaszczykwoski, Reus, Großkreutz (Götze) – Lewandowski
Subs: Langerak – Kirch, Löwe, Santana, Leitner, Perisic, Götze, Schieber
Doubtful: Götze, Gündogan, Kehl
Out: Owomoyela

Fortuna Düsseldorf’s possible eleven: Giefer – Balogun, Bodzek, Juanan, van den Bergh – Paurevic, Lambertz – Garbuschewski, Ilsö, Bellinghausen – Kruse
Subs: Almer – Fomitschow, Voronin, Reisinger, Rafael
Doubtful: Not known
Out: Bruno Soares, Langeneke, Levels, Malezas, Cha

Let us hope that Mario Götze is fit, his ability to create chances is important for my pick. My guess is that he will start on the bench and I go from seven units to five. In the preview of the game at whoscored.com he is in the starting eleven tough.

Jens Langeneke and Stelios Malezas are starting centre-backs for Fortuna Düsseldorf. With these two players out there should be more room for Lewandowski and others to create chances.

Mario Götze is in doubt for tonight’s game.

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Game: Borussia Dortmund – Fortuna Düsseldorf

Bet: Over 1.5 goals first half

Odds: 2.02 (Nordicbet)

Value: 5 units

Result: 1-0 half time (1-1 full time), -5 units

Units in total: -11.29

Total wins-voids-losses: 14-5-14