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Pick of the day #48: Falkenberg – Örgryte

April 2, 2013

Falkenberg play Örgryte tomorrow in the quarter finals in the Swedish Cup and the game is played on neutral arena in Växjö. The bookmakers have missed that and an Örgryte win is currently priced at 4.00. I have chosen Örgryte DnB at 2.95 on Unibet.

For me the teams have equal strength and there should be great value in Örgryte here!

(Thanks Johan Elevant for the information.)

UPDATE 1:

I should have mentioned that Falkenberg defeated Örgryte in a friendly earlier this winter (3-1).

I wrote the text above in a hurry at work this morning and did not have time to motivate more. The big value in Örgryte is gone now and Falkenberg are slight favourites. That is probably more correct. There is a chance that I will buy me out of the game with a slight profit before kick-off. I will inform you on Twitter and the blog if that is the case.

UPDATE 2:

I have decided to buy me out of the game. I place 3 units on Falkenberg DnB @1.675 (Bet365), which means that this will be a void in case of a home win (+0.025 units) or draw and if Örgryte win I cash out 0.90 units. There is a rather high probability that Falkenberg will win this and when I got the opportunity to save the bet I think it is better to play it safe.

———————————————

Game: Falkenberg – Örgryte

Bet: Two bets: Örgryte DnB & Falkenbeg DnB

Odds: 2.95 (Unibet) & 1.675 (Bet365)

Wager: 2 units (of 4) & 3 units

Results: 0-1, +0.9 units

Units in total: -6.16

ROI: 94.16%

Total wins-voids-losses: 21-4-23

From → Pick of the day

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