Pick of the day #42: Uruguay – Paraguay
Uruguay host Paraguay in a very important game between two regular World Cup qualifiers. Both teams have played under their normal standard so far in the qualification round and need a win here to close up with the teams ahead of them in the table.
Uruguay have managed to score fourteen goals in five home games and Paraguay have conceded twelve away. The game to game records in the qualification are
Bold face is used for the winning teams. Also highlighted (in green) are the games when Uruguay have scored two or more goals or when Paraguay have conceded two or more goals.
We see that Uruguay have struggled lately, but that have been in very tough games and I believe that they will do well tonight. They have scored four goals in three of their five home games and I believe that they have a great chance to do that again. Paraguay have conceded two or more in all five away games.
Uruguay’s offensive line is absolute world class with players like Cavani, Suarez, Forlan, Rodriguez, and Ramirez. The probability that players like that will find the net a couple of times against a weak Paraguay side should be high and I cannot believe why over 1.5 Uruguay goals is priced that high. Bet365 offers 1.72 and Bwin 1.75 for example. Only one regular first team player is missed in Uruguay, defensive player Martin Caceres crashed with his car in Italy last week.
Paraguay have qualified for four straight World Cup Championships but this time they need to improve heavily to give themselves a chance. Their defensive players are not world class and will probably have problems with Suarez et al. To this game Paraguay miss forwards Barrios and Santa Cruz, keeper Justo Villar, and midfielder Barreto.
My bet is:
Uruguay over 1.5 goals @1.75 (Bwin). 2 units.
Uruguay over 2.5 goals @3.40 (Bet365). 0.5 units.
Game: Uruguay – Paraguay
Bet: Uruguay over 1.5 AND over 2.5 goals
Odds: 1.75 (Bwin) AND 3.40 (Bet365)
Wager: 2+0.5 units (of 4)
Results: 1-1, -2.5 units…
Units in total: -4.26
Total wins-voids-losses: 19-2-21