Pick of the day #31: Deportivo La Coruna – Real Madrid
One of the two Spanish giants, Real Madrid, plays a struggling Deportivo La Coruna side away from home tonight. Despite a tough schedule for Real and despite that they will rest some players I see great value in the prices for an away victory. The difference between the two teams is huge and I go for Real Madrid Asian handicap -1.25 (i.e., half the wager is returned if they only win with a one goal difference).
Real Madrid has some players returning from suspension, but Ramos is suspended after his red card in their last game. Casillas is still injured, but he is expected to return earlier than was first reported. Real will play Barcelona in Copa del Rey on Tuesday and is expected to rest some big stars. The reports say that Özil, Alonso, and Benzema will be left outside the starting eleven.
Deportivo will probably have two important players back tonight. Marchena will return in the defense after his suspension and Ayoze is expected to return after being out for a long while. However, the hosts will be without a few key players. Pablo is suspended and Aythami and Laure are both injured.
Deportivo have had a tough season and Fernando Vázquez is their third manager this season. They sit rock bottom in the table with only 16 points in 24 games. They have conceded 54 goals, worst in the league. They come to this game with five straight league losses.
Real Madrid have had some problems this year, but still sits third in the league with 49 points in 24 games. They have scored 60 goals and I believe that they will get a few tonight.
The bookmakers have taken Real Madrid’s tough schedule and the team news into account, but I believe that players like Modric, Essien, Kaka, Varane, and Callejon are great replacements. Ronaldo is expected to start, which is of course of great importance.
Ronaldo starts on the bench tonight! This is of course no good news, but there is still a great chance that players like Higuain, Kaka, and Di Maria will find the net here. And perhaps will Ronaldo get at least 30 minutes? The prices for Real Madrid have gone up significantly after the line ups were revealed. I still reckon Real as a far better team than Deportivo and would have placed a bet on Real at the prices now if I wasn’t involved in the game already.
Deportivo (4-2-3-1): Aranzubia; Silvio, Kaka, Marchena, Ayoze; Abel Aguilar, Assuncao; Gama, Pizzi, Valeron; Riki.
Subs: Oliveira, Dominguez, Bergantinos, Vazquez, Camunas, Salomao, Lux
Real Madrid (4-2-3-1): Diego Lopez; Arbeloa, Pepe, Carvalho, Marcelo; Essien, Modric; Di Maria, Kaka, Callejon; Higuain
Subs: Adan, Coentrao, Albiol, Khedira, Ozil, Ronaldo, Morata
Game: Deportivo La Coruna – Real Madrid
Bet: Real Madrid -1.25 (Asian handicap)
Odds: 1.925 (Bet365)
Wager: 3 units (of 4)
Result: 1-2, -1.5 units
Units in total: +11.79
Total wins-voids-losses: 17-1-13