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Pick of the day #17: Moreirense – Benfica

January 20, 2013

Moreirense FC, bottom in the Portugese Primeira Liga with only eight points in fourteen games, host Benfica SL who top the league and have shown great form recently. I cannot see Moreirense get anything out of this game despite that they actually played 1-1 in the league cup recently. In the league Benfica should not let the bottom team in the table get anything out of the game and under normal circumstances Benfica should win with at least two goals. Tonight the home team have great problems with seven injured or suspended players and coach Jorge Casquilha have only called sixteen players to the game.

I pick Benfica to win here and find great value in the Asian Handicap bet. Benfica are just too strong for Moreirense and with the following information I feel very confident:

Injured players Moreirense: Defender Paulinho (3 starts+0 substitutes), attacking midfielder Pablo Olivera (4+4), and midfielder Francisco Castro (0+2).

Suspended players Moreirense: Defender Pereira Loureiro Augusto (14+0), midfielder Fabio Espinho (14+0), midfielder Filipe Gonçalves (13+0) and forward De Andrade Wagner (10+4)

New players Moreirense: Defender Diego Gaucho (8+2) was suspended in the 0-5 defeat against Vitória Setúbal and is back tonight. Defender Florent Hanin has been loaned from Sporting Braga and attacker Jorge Chula from Sporting Lisbon.

———————————————

Game:  Moreirense – Benfica

Bet: Benfica -1.75 (often called -1.5,-2, which means a half win in case of two goals victory, a full win in case of a victoy with three goals or more, and a loss otherwise)

Odds: 1.99 (Pinnacle)

Wager: 3 units (of 4)

Result: 0-2, +1.49 units

Units in total (2013): +4.36

Total wins-voids-losses (2013): 8-1-8

From → Pick of the day

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