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Problems in Real Zaragoza

January 17, 2013

I believe that I have found a bet with some value for Sunday.

Valladolid are placed 10th in the Spanish La Liga with seven wins, four drawn games, and eight losses. At home they have 4-3-3 (19-13). They have lost a few games recently, but that has been at home to Real Madrid (2-3) and Barcelona (1-3), and away to Celta Vigo (3-1). In their last game they defeated Mallorca (3-1) after two late goals. Striker Manucho (11 starts (2 subs), average whoscored rating 7.28) will be missed since he is playing African Cup of Nations for Angola.

My bet today is not based on Valladolid’s strength, but more on their opponents problems to this game.

Real Zaragoza often try to play a defensive game. They sit 13th in the table with seven wins, one draw, and eleven losses. Away from home they have 4-1-5 (10-16). They have lost two straight games in the league. Their last game was yesterday in boring game (0-0) at home to a struggling Sevilla. On Sunday they will miss a lot of defensive players and that is why I place an early bet here. Defender Javier Paredes (10(3), 6.53), defender Álvaro González (17(0), 6.70), defender Cristian Sapunaru (15(0), 6.92), and defensive midfielder José Mari (8(6), 6.65) are all suspended. Midfielder Romaric (5(3), 6.11) plays for Ivory Coast in African Cup of Nations and will also be unavailable.

Valladolid have a better record in the recent previous meetings. In late August the defeated Zaragoza with 1-0 at Zaragoza’s home ground.

Given Zaragoza’s problem there should be more than 50% chance of a home victory here and I place two units (of four) on a Valladolid victory @2.07 (Pinnacle Sports). I might put in some more money on this game more close to the game when more updated team news are available.

This bet will be introduced as a pick of the day for Sunday.

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