Pick of the day #3: Newport County – Wrexham
Two Welch teams, Newport County and Wrexham, sit in position two and three in the BSBP League (Conference) and they will play each other on Friday night in a very important game. The two teams have scored most in the league so far. Both teams have the chance to claim the top position at least until Saturday when league leaders Grimsby Town play again.
Newport score in average 2.17 goals per league game and concede 1.58 (at home 2.31 and 1.38, respectively). With 28 goals at home this season they are second best in the Conference this season, only beaten by tonight’s opponents. Striker Aaron O´Connor have scored 15 goals in only 22 games, most in the league together with Matthew Barnes-Homer in Macclesfield.
Newport have decent form with three wins in five games, but received a shock loss (0-5) at home to Forest Green in their last game. In the game before that they defeated the very same team with 2-1 away. They have gone over 2.5 goals in nine consecutive league games, over 3.5 in eight of these nine, and over 4.5 in six of them! Jake Thomson will not be available since the midfielder has gone on a one-month loan to Lincoln City.
Wrexham score in average 2.00 goals per game and concede 1.06 (away from home 1.67 and 0.92, respectively). They also have three wins in five games (and a draw 2-2 draw) and three of these five games have gone over 2.5 goals. In their last match they defeated Telford with 2-0 away. To this game they will, unfortunately for my bet, have the former Blackpool, Southampton and Preston striker Brett Ormerod out. Ormerod has scored four times in the last five games.
I believe that there will be a lot of goals in this Welch derby and go for the over 2.5 goals bet to a more than decent price of 1.78 (Pinnacle Sports). I stick to only one unit since over bets are always tricky and I do not have full knowledge about the Conference league.
UPDATE: I got a good question on Twitter by @spelchefen (who have very good ideas regarding betting, worth a follow if you understand Swedish). Considering the stats I provided it’s a bit strange that the bookies offer rather high odds for the over bet. I reckon they have three reasons. First, in recent games between the two sides there have not been many goals. The last five games read 1-1, 0-1, 0-0, 0-1, 0-2 (Newport County first, Newport at home in bold). Second, there might always be a risk of tight games when top teams play each other. Third, this is a game between two rivals from Wales, which makes things a bit more unpredictable. I still fancy the over bet though!
Game: Newport County – Wrexham
Bet: Over 2.5 goals
Odds: 1.78 (Pinnacle)
Wager: 1 units (scale 1-4)
Units in total (2013): -2.19
Total wins-voids-losses (2013): 1-0-2