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Pick of the day #1 (2013): Watford – Charlton

January 1, 2013

Watford have a strong squad that should handle this intense part of the season. Charlton are new in the Championship and the Addicks have found life tough but are at the moment eight points clear of the relegation zone. Charlton have a run of six matches without a win and I believe that they will not get any points away to Watford.

Gianfranco Zola’s men are doing well at the moment and come from an impressive 3-1 win away to Brighton. Former QPR defender Fitz Hall limped off at Brighton with a hamstring knock and will probably not be involved today. Watford have more than enough cover in the defensive line and Brazilian Neuton, one of their loans from Udinese, are expected to join Swede Andreas Ekstrand and Irishman Tommie Hoban in their back three. Among other available replacements are former Sunderland defender Nyron Nosworthy.

Marco Cassetti returns from a one-match suspension, but Lloyd Doyley is still out with a calf injury. Striker Fernando Forestieri returned from a hamstring problem at Brighton and made the bench. He is believe to start on the bench once again since Troy Deeney and Matej Vydra have shown great form lately.

Watford have offensive strength. Only Middlesbrough, Crystal Palace and Cardiff have scored more, all three teams with one game more, and Watford have managed to score in each of their last nine fixtures.

After a loosing spell Charlton got a draw at home to Derby the other day. Striker Danny Haynes pulled a hamstring and will be out today and defender Michael Morrison got two cautions and serves a one-match ban. Striker Ricardo Fuller was named on the bench after a hamstring problem, but could make a return to the line-up. Rhoys Wiggins, Andy Hughes, and Ade Azeez are all out due to injuries.

Emmanuel Frimpong has been on loan to Charlton, but was left out against Derby and will return to Arsenal after the game today.

Watford stats: Total 12-5-8 (38-22 in goals). At home 6-2-4 (17-11). Form WLDWW.

Charlton stats: Total 7-9-9 (30-33 in goals). Away 4-4-4 (13-13). Form DLLLD.

Watford have better form than Charlton, a lot more strength in the squad, and home advantage today. Watford play Manchester City next in the FA cup, but Zola is believed to play his best team today. I believe in a home victory and stick to the -0.75 Asian handicap bet. The Championship is a hard league to bet at though and I will only stick to two out of four units in my first bet of the year.

Observe kick off 14:00 CET!

———————————————-

Game: Watford – Carlton

Bet: Asian handicap. Watford (-0.75). Thus, only half win if Watford win by 1.

Odds: 2.02 (Pinnacle)

Wager: 2 units (scale 1-4)

Result: 3-4, -2 units. (I should of course have picked Watford over 1.5 goals @1.83, much more value in that bet, not only after the game has been played). Very stupid.

Units in total (2013): -2

Total wins-voids-losses (2013): 0-0-1

From → Pick of the day

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