Pick of the day #54: Stoke – Southampton
Big day in UK today with matches in all divisions. It is always difficult to predict match outcomes this time of the year and I have struggled to find a decent bet, but after the price for a Stoke win increased during the morning I simply could not resist to bet for a home win.
Earlier today the price was around 1.80, but after an increase during the morning 2.04 was available at Pinnacle Sports. I give Stoke over 50% chance to win this and believe that there is great value in a price above 2.00.
Stoke have two important defenders out due to suspensions (Shawcross and Cameron both got their fifth booking against Liverpool). But from what I’m heard Upson and Shotton will replace without decreasing the strength of the defensive line too much. They have a lot of quality and especially an admirable fighting spirit in the team. It will rain in Stoke-on-Trent today and the pitch will be heavy, something that should be in favour of Stoke here.
Southampton have increased their defence in recent games. They have a team that tries to play the ball on the ground and do not fly into tackles too often (with only 15 yellow cards so far they top the fair play table). However, I do not think that type of play will be possible today at Britannia and fancy a home win. Southampton away records are not impressive either.
Stoke stats: Total: 6-10-3 (18-15). Home: 5-4-0 (11-4). Last five games: 2 wins, 3 draws.
Southampton stats: Total: 4-4-10 (23-34). Away: 1-1-6 (9-26). Last five games: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses.
My other idea today was Sheffield United against Hartlepool (Asian handicap), but the team news did not convince me. I also thought of Bradford to score over 1.5 goals. Unfortunately they have problems with injuries and illness up front.
I also place a bet on Port Talbot Town v Afan Lido in Wales. More information can be found here. I go for the straight home win @1.45 (Nordicbet), 6 units.
Game: Stoke – Southampton
Bet: Stoke win
Odds: 2.04 (Pinnacle)
Value: 7 units
Result: 3-3, -7 units
Units in total: -18.12
Total wins-voids-losses: 25-6-23