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Pick of the day #46: Sporting – Benfica

December 9, 2012

Great betting day today but my main pick went wrong. I haven’t read or seen anything from the game, but Asteras Tripolis scored their first goal late in the game and couldn’t get in another one. Tomorrow (Monday) I will go for Benfica in the big derby against Sporting Lisbon.

Sporting are not in the usual shape this season. They are only 8th in the league with only two wins in ten games (five draws). In Europe they haven’t played well either. They finished bottom in a group with Racing Genk, FC Basel, and Videoton, with only 4 goals in 6 games and with the only win in the last game at home to Videoton (2-1). That game was played last Friday since the pitch was covered by rain on the Thursday. For the players involved in that game there have therefore only been two resting days before tomorrow. In the league Sporting have played five home games with 2-2-1 (5-4). Thus, we see that they have great problems scoring goals this season.

Benfica, on the other hand, have done great the whole season. They were even voted as November’s best team in the world, which is of course not true but still says something. They were very close to qualify for the next round in the Champions League, but only got 0-0 in Barcelona despite creating loads of very big chances. Before that they had seven straight wins and their last loss came in the very hard away game to Spartak Moscow. In the league they have 8 wins and 2 drawn games so far. They have scored 25 goals and conceded only 6!

Benfica have had some injuries, but a few players are on their way back to the team and the injury list hasn’t stopped them from performing so far. The confirmed injured players for the game are Pablo Aimar and Carlos Martins.

I think that there is a massive difference in class and form between the teams and that Benfica will win this game. The fact that it is a local derby against two big rivals decreases the value one unit or two, but I still see great value here. I think that over 2.00 is too much for Benfica and believe the classic name of the home team has influenced the odds-setters a bit here.

———————————————————

Game: Sporting – Benfica

Bet: 2

Odds: 2.06 (Pinnacle)

Value: 6 units

Result: 1-3, +6.36

Units in total: -2.87

Total wins-voids-losses: 23-5-18

From → Pick of the day

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