Pick of the day #45: Asteras Tripolis – Aris Thessaloniki
Back to Greece after my miss there a week or so ago. Asteras Tripolis FC, third in the league, will play Aris Thessalonike FC, one of four teams in the bottom of the league with 11 points in 13 games.
In total: 13 games, 7-3-3 (18-7 in goals). At home 6-0-0 (15-2). Recent five games: 3-1-1. In all six home victories this season Astereas have scored over 1.5 goals.
Squad status: Compared to the last game (1-1 away to Skoda Xanthi) defenders Kourbelis (involved in 8 league games this season) and Orozko (back after long term injury) are back in the squad. Usero (Mf, 13 games) and Bakasetas (Fw, 5 games) are out. Four additional players are out injured, among them top goal scorer Perrone (5 goals in 9 goals).
In total: 13 games, 2-5-6 (11-21 in goals). Away 0-2-4 (4-13). Recent five games: 1-1-3.
Squad status: From what I have found out there are no recently injured players in the Aris squad.
Club status: As many clubs in Greece, Aris have large financial problems. Most of their sponsors have left them and they will probably be forced to start over again in a lower league. There are talks about new Russian money that may save the club. They have appointed a new manager, Spaniard Lucas Alcaraz is now in charge.
Despite some injuries I believe that Astereas Tripolis have a much better squad than Aris and should win this rather comfortably. I am going for over 1.5 goals for the home team. A price around 2.00 is simply too good to refuse. To compare, a straight home bet pays around 1.60…
Game: Asteras Tripolis – Aris Thessaloniki FC
Bet: Asteras Tripolis over 1.5 goals
Odds: 2.00 (Bet365)
Value: 7 units
Result: 1-1, -7 units
Units in total: -9.23
Total wins-voids-losses: 22-5-18