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Pick of the day #37: Akhisar Belediye – Bursaspor

December 1, 2012

St Pölten couldn’t make it yesterday and only got 2-2. Big blow for yesterday’s pick, but I managed to even that up with two live bets in second half. First I took St Pölten first to 7 corners @3.25 (1.5 units) when they started going for goals more intensively (they had 3-1 in corners when I placed the bet). Then I placed 5 units on St Pölten to win or draw @2.00 when they were 1-2 down (around minute 70). I usually do not recommend to bet that heavy on a single game (I had 7 units from my original pick of the day as well), but I just couldn’t see St Pölten to miss out at least a draw and twice the money was a great price. I put some of my live bets on Twitter, follow me there if you are interested in them.

Today I believe that Bursaspor are undervalued in their away game against Akhisar Belediye. Bursaspor is simply a better team than Akhisar Belediye, 17th out of 18 teams in the Turkish Super Lig. Bursaspor have some injury doubts in this game, but I still believe they have enough quality to score at least two goals. Let us hope former AIK striker Tetteh Bangura finds the net after he had missed some good opportunities in recent games.

Stats Akhisar Belediye: In total 2 wins, 4 draws, 7 losses (8-22 in goals). At home 0-2-4 (2-11). Form LLLLLW.

Stats Bursaspor: In total 4-6-3 (21-16). Away from home 2-3-1 (10-9). Form DWDLWD.

I pick Bursaspor to score over 1.5 goals in the game @1.83 (Bet365), which is of great value in my opinion. I add a bet on Bursa to score in both halves @3.10 (Unibet), which is just too high I believe (Bet365 offers 2.62 for the same bet). First I thought of going for the latter bet with the entire wager, but I play it safe and place two bets here. If Bursaspor manage to score twice in the first half I do not believe they will go for a third…

See here for a tipster that back my bet and here, where the tipster think there will be few goals in the game. Let us hope he/she is wrong. The weather forecast can be found here.

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Game: Akhisar Belediye – Bursaspor

Bet: Bursaspor over 1.5 goals & Bursaspor to score in both halves

Odds: 1.83 (Bet365) & 3.10 (Unibet)

Value: 3.5 units & 1.5 units

Result: 2-2 FT, 1-0 HT, +1.41 units (which is documented as a win below, everything above +1 unit is documented as a win and below -1 unit as a loss).

Units in total: -11.59

Total wins-voids-losses: 17-5-15

From → Pick of the day

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