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Pick of the day #34: Duisburg – Union Berlin

November 28, 2012

The picks continue to go wrong. Yesterday it was Dortmund (and Fortuna Düssuldorf) who couldn’t score more than one goal in the first half. I will try a slightly different bet today with a draw or away win in the game MSV Duisburg – FC Union Berlin. None of the teams are doing very well and I believe that this game will end up in a draw. But I cannot rule out the chance of a away win (especially after considering the injury lists more carefully) and include that in the bet.

Duisburg have struggled and have only 3/15 wins in the league (3 draws and 9 losses and 12-28 in goals). At home they have only managed 1/7 wins (in the last game against Erzgebirge Aue, another team fighting to avoid relegation). They also have 2 draw and 4 losses at home and 7-14 in goals. Their home record is worst in the league. In their last five games they have LWDLL.

Union Berlin sit in position eleven of eighteen teams in the table (4-6-5, 21-21). Away they have 1-4-2, 12-13. They haven’t lost in four games and their last five games read DDDWL.

In the last four games between the two sides two have ended in a draw and two in victories for Union Berlin.

Looking at the statistics you could go for a straight draw here, but I have the feeling that Union Berlin is a better team and I want to include an away win in my bet. Especially after I considered the injuries in both teams:

Duisburg have a long injury list. According to transfermakt they have five injured players at the moment, but I’ve read about more injuries on other sites. Among the confirmed injured players are first goalkeeper Felix Wiedwald (started in 14/15 games)and defender/midfielder Andre Hoffmann (12 starts). According to this site Bosnian international defender Branimir Bajic (12 starts) is also out. So is experienced Brazilian midfielder Anotnio da Silva (10 starts), Croatian international Zvonko Pamic (10 starts), Slovenian regular Goran Sukalo (14 starts), and a few other players who have been involved little or not at all this season.

Union Berlin have four players out, but not many who have played regularly. Moreover, Daniel Göhlert is back after suspension.

Considering the statistics this will end up in a draw. Considering the injuries this will end up in an away win. I take both and feel rather comfortable.


Game: MSV Duisburg – FC Union Berlin

Bet: Union Berlin or draw

Odds: 1.46 (Pinnacle)

Value: 4 units

Result: 1-2, +1.84 units

Units in total: -9.45

Total wins-voids-losses: 15-5-14



From → Pick of the day

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