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Pick of the day #28: FC Istres – AC Arles-Avignon

November 23, 2012

I was very lucky yesterday to get back the wager. Cavani scored with a penalty in the very last seconds of the game and my Asian Handicap bet ended in a void. Tonight I think I’ve found a great pick with high value in a local derby in French Ligue 2.

FC Istres host AC Arles-Avignon tonight at 18:45 CET. Arles are in deep trouble with seven straight losses. They are currently placed third from the bottom in the league with match record 3-4-7 (goals 12-24). Away from home their record is 1-2-4 (7-15). Before their last game the board decided to sack popular manager Thierry Laurey and appointed Pierre Mosca as new caretaker boss. Mosca had been at the club’s youth academy and hasn’t been managing a senior team since 1998 (Nîmes Olympique). In his first game in charge Arles lost with 3-0 at home to Stade Laval. The fans sang Thierry Laurey’s name during the game. In short, AC Arles-Avignon is a club in quite a mess at the moment and it will be interesting to see if the new manager has got things in order to this game. I doubt so, even if he had had 15 days to prepare since last game.

In Istres things look better. They have surprised the pundits this year and are currently in the third position in the league with 7-3-4 (18-13 in goals). At home they have been very good with 5-1-1 (10-5). Their only loss at home was against top contenders Caen (0-4). After that big loss they have bounced back in their last two home games with wins against Tours FC (4-1) and Le Mans (1-0).

Things that might jeopardise a bet for the home team might be that this is a local derby which might put some extra pressure on the home players and give the players in the away team great motivation to bounce back from their current bad run. Moreover, there hasn’t been a game in two weeks for the teams and the current form might have changed (especially for the away team). A final remark may be that Istres were believed to fight in the bottom of the table pre-season and have perhaps played above their capacity earlier in the season.

I believe that Istres will come out with another victory here though and go for the straight home win.

Squad status:

Istres: Regular left-bak Alain Cantareil is in doubt with an injured thigh. Midfielder Julien Cardy is back from suspension.

Arles: Maurice Dale is doubtful with a bad ankle. Chaouki Ben Saada is out with an injured hamstring.

FC Istres.

Game:  FC Istres – AC Arles-Avignon

Bet: Home win

Odds: 1.82 (Pinnacle)

Value: 7 units

Result: 0-1, -7 units (Istres red card min 25…)

Units in total: -1.67

Total wins-voids-losses: 13-4-11

 

From → Pick of the day

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