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Pick of the day #27: AIK – Napoli

November 22, 2012

Today I bet against a Swedish side. I think Napoli will defeat AIK at former national arena Råsunda (AIK will move out from Råsunda now and this might be the last game there). In a sense I hope I’m wrong here since I always support Swedish sides in Europe (even if I support local rivals Djurgården I hope that AIK will win here…).

Napoli seems to send their best squad to Stockholm and the difference in class should result in a Napoli win. Despite a massive support from the stands tonight and despite 6 degrees Celsius I really cannot see AIK getting any points out of this game. Napoli is simply too good.

Last night I discussed with Martin Orselius of perhaps going for the -2 Asian Handicap (@5.00), but I will stick for the -1 handicap since I think that Napoli will win by 2-0 or 3-1 (with the last goal around minute 87). The odds for Napoli has gone down since last night and will probably decrease a bit more so I place the bet already now, early in the morning.

——–

UPDATE: The starting elevens are released. As expected AIK plays with the strongest possible:

27 Ivan Turina (GK), 16 Martin Lorentzson, 2 Niklas Backman, 3 Per Karlsson, 4 Nils-Eric Johansson (C), 7 Helgi Daníelsson, 10 Celso Borges, 15 Robin Quaison,  20 Ibrahim Moro,  28 Viktor Lundberg, 75 Mohamed Bangura.

Subs: 5 Robert Åhman Persson, 8 Daniel Tjernström, 13 Kyriakos Stamatopoulos (GK), 22 Kwame Amponsah Karikari, 24 Daniel Gustavsson, 29 Gabriel Özkan, 45 Daniel Majstorović.

Napoli rests a couple of players but still have a strong eleven (I hoped for an even better one though):

22 Rosati(GK), 5 Britos, 6 Aronica(C), 55 Gamberini, 4 Donadel, 8 Dossena, 16 Mesto, 20 Dzemaili, 85 Behrami, 7 Cavani, 9 Vargas
Subs: 1 De Sanctis(GK), 11 Maggio, 28 Cannavaro, 13 El Kaddouri, 17 Hamšík, 18 Zúñiga
The odds has gone up and down during the day, but now short before kick off its down to almost the same as early in the morning.
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Game:  AIK – Napoli

Bet: Asian Handicap AIK – Napoli (-1): Napoli win

Odds: 2.27 (Pinnacle)

Value: 6 units

Result: 1-2, void

Units in total: +5.33

Total wins-voids-losses: 13-4-10

 

From → Pick of the day

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