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Pick of the day #22: Lokomotiv Plovdiv – Cherno More Varna

November 16, 2012

Today’s pick is purely based on statistics.

Lokomotiv Plovdiv will host Cherno More Varna in the Bulgarian top league at 13:30 Central European Time. Lokomotiv is currently eighth in the league with three wins, six, draws, and three losses and 17-16 in goals (2.75 goals per game in average). At home they have 2-2-1 and 11-9 in goals. Thus, in average four goals per game at home (including a 2-5 loss to PFC Ludogorets Razgrad, without this game the average number of goals at home is 3.25). Lokomotiv have decent form, in their last four games they have:

  • 2-1 win away to FK Montana, currently twelfth in the league.
  • 2-2 draw in the local derby against Botev Plovdiv (third in the league).
  • 2-1 loss away to Levski Sofia, who top the table with ten wins in twelve games.
  • 1-0 win at home to Slavia Sofia, currently in position nine.

Cherno More Varna are placed eleventh in the league with three wins, four draws, and five losses (10-19 in goals, making an average of 2.42 goals per game). Away from home their stats are awful, 1-0-4 (5-14 in goals, making 4.75 goals in average). Their only win was early in the season against Etar Tarnovo (1-0), currently at position 15 (of 16) in the league with only seven points in twelve games. In Cherno More’s last four away games the results are not impressive at all. The scores are 4-1, 3-2, 3-1, 4-0!

Last season Lokomotiv won both games, 1-0 at home and 2-1 away. The season before that they played 1-1 away and won at home (2-0).

I believe that Lokomiv Plovdiv is the better team here and go for the straight home win (3 units) to 2.10. Statistically it should be many goals in the game and I also go for the over 2.5 goals bet who I think is very high at Unibet (2.15). If one of the bets goes well we cash in a small amount, but if both go well we cash in 6.75 units!

Rumours indicate that former striker Martin Kamburov will join Lokomotiv later in the season. There are still things to be solved and for now, let us hope that the other strikers in the club manage to score today. Current top goal scorer is Rangel Abushev with six goals in the eleven games he has been involved in.

Lokomotiv squad to the game is:

Stefano Kunchev, Jordan Gospodinov, Kostadin Markov, Kiril Kotev, Martin Kavdanska, Pavel Kovachev, V. Georgiev, Hristo Stamov, Daniel Georgiev, Hristo Zlatinski, Nikolai Dyulgerov, Stanislav Malamov, Dimo Atanasov, Nikolay Stankov, Zapryan Zapryanov, Georgi Stefanov, Rangel Abushev, Atanas Mihaylov Kurdov, and Serafim Mihaylov.

Three more picks with low wagers today:

  • Borussia Dortmund – Greuther Furth: Dortmund -2 (Asian) @1.925 (Bet365). 3 units.
  • Port Talbot Town – Aberystwyth Town: Home win  @1.80 (Bwin). 2 units
  • ADO Den Haag – PSV: Over 5 corners first half (Asian) @1.825 (Bet365). 2 units (low wager since PSV play away).

———–

Game:  Lokomotiv Plovdiv – Cherno More Varna

Bet: Two bets: 1) Over 2.5 goals 2) Home win

Odds: 2.10 (Bet365) & 2.15 (Unibet)

Value: 3 + 3 units (max 10)

Result: 1-0, +0.45 units (will be marked as void in total wins-voids-losses)

Units in total: -2.36

Total wins-voids-losses: 11-2-9

From → Pick of the day

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