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Pick of the day #10: Genclerbirligi – Elazigspor

November 4, 2012

The next bet is Genclerbirligi to score over 1.5 goals in the Super Lig in Turkey. This bet is purely statistical and I haven’t had time to dig into starting elevens etc. A very short motivation follows.

Genclerbirligi have had four games at home this season, with the scores 3-3, 4-0, 1-1, 3-1. Thus, in three out of four games they scored more than 1.5 goals. Today they play Elazigspor, currently the bottom team of the table. Elazigspor’s away record is not good. The scores are 2-2, 4-0, 3-0, 2-0. Thus, they have conceded more than two goals in all four away games.

Based on the season so far, it seems very probable that Genclerbirligi will win and score more than 1.5 goals. The odds for over 1.5 goals is slightly better than a straight home win and I go for the goals bet.

UPDATE: I got some information from @turkishsoccer on twitter and he thinks that Genclerbirligi should easily score at least two goals. He also notes that Elazigspor have a new coach (Yilmaz Vural). Let us hope that his impact hasn’t improved the team already…

RESULTS: The impact from Yilmaz Vural was great on Elazigspor. After 1-1 in half time I felt confident that Genclerbirligi should score once more, but they got Kose sent off in minute 51 and couldn’t create another goal.

Game:  Genclerbirligi – Elazigspor

Bet:  Genclerbirligi over 1.5 goals

Odds: 1.83 (Bet365)

Value: 6/10 units

Result: 1-2. -6 units.

Units in total: +8.56 units

Total wins-voids-losses: 6-0-4

From → Pick of the day

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