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Is there a European League effect in Premer League games?

September 24, 2012

Most of my time right now is dedicated to work, family, and betting and the time for blogging is simply not there at the moment. Omar Chaudhuri at the excellent blog 5 added minutes seems to have the time and energy to do proper analysis and I suggest to put your attention there instead.

Today he published a very interesting piece where he showed that there is a negative association between Thursday night games in Europa League and performance in Premier League the following Sunday. Teams that play in Europe on Thursday nights perform worse than expected the following Sunday. This effect is specially significant when the Europa league game has been away from home.

Expectations are calculated from historical betting data from football-data.co.uk.

My immediate thought is (as I also comment in the blog post):

Are there reasons to believe that the odds is somewhat settled for the European League effect (it should be)? If the two teams would have played in a regular Saturday game with no European games before, would the odds be the same? That is something that is interested to dig into, but it is of course a very hard thing to analyse properly.

If there is a European League effect in the odds, the true disadvantage with Thursday night games is even greater though.

I got the answer

I personally don’t think the odds are at all adjusted for the ‘European effect’, but I can’t be sure.

I would love to do that analysis some day and also extend it to other leagues. This is interesting in its own, but also when building betting strategies.

residuals pl games after thursday europa league games

Performance of some teams in English Premier League after Europa League games. Image taken from the 5 added minutes blog post mentioned in the text.

From → Analysis

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