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A snowball

September 15, 2012

Using the snowball effect in betting is a common methodology for tipster to try to win big money with a small initial stake. The snowball effect is a type of accumulator bet with the difference that bets are placed on individual games one at a time with increased stakes in each round. Barontipping is a snowball maestro. His current snowball has survived 12 rounds now and is growing big. This inspired me to try an own snowball. I will update this post subsequently.

My Methodology

Place 20 SEK (Swedish Kronor) in round 1. If the bet is correct, cash out half of the profit. Then place the rest (20 SEK + the other half) on a new bet at round 2. If this bet is also correct, cash out half of the profit in this round and iterate until a bet is wrong and the snowball melts down. I will place all my bets on Unibet since I only have an account there currently. The profit could of course increase if different sites are used and compared.

Others who use the snowball methodology do no not cash out parts of the profit in each round, but instead cash out some of the overall profit every now and then. With that methodology the snowball grows quickly, but there is a huge risk of loosing much of the winnings if parts of the money is withdrawn too late.

The Snowball

Round 1: The first bet has already been placed. The night to today a triple with favourites started the rolling of the snowball. The three games were, (1) SC Toronto – Brampton United FC (home), (2) Washington Mystics – Atlanta Dream (away), and (3) Central Español – Nacional de Montevideo (DNB away). The overall odds was 1.58.

RESULTS: Win. Cash out 5.60 SEK. Curent bankroll for next bet is 26 SEK.

Round 2: Robredo – Gimeno-Traver (away @1.62). Stake 26 SEK. The final in the Challenger tournament in Sevilla (Spain). Robredo has had a much tougher way to the final than Gimeno-Traver who had impressed heavily. The two players are ranked a bit from top-100, but the form of Gimeno-Traver seems to be much better. The game starts at 12.05 Central European Time.

RESULTS: Win. Cash out 8.12. Total cash out 13.72. Curent bankroll for next bet is 34 SEK.

Round 3: Sturm Graz – Wacker Innsbruck (home @1.53). Sturm Graz has lost one game at home this season, that was against top ranked Salzburg though and after a big loss away to another top ranked team (Rapid Wien) they have two straight wins, looking for the third. Wacker Innsbruck has been awful so far this season. The only win in the league came at home against Mattersburg (who actually beat Sturm Graz at home…) and they have six losses in seven games. I can’t see how they will manage to get any points from Sturm Graz. The game is at 18:30 CET.

I actually planned to place a DNB bet on Helsingborg against Sundsvall (at 16:00 CET) in round 3 and place the Sturm Graz game in round 4, but the odds fell dramatically and it simply wasn’t worth it. That is a big drawback with the snowball strategy compared to an ordinary accumulator bet. You can’t place bets as soon as you discover good odds and there is a risk that the odds will fall before you can place your bet.

RESULTS: Win. Cash out 9,02 SEK. Total cash out 22,74. Current bankroll for next bet is 43 SEK.

Round 4: Next bet comes up straight away. Rapid Bucharest – Gloria Bistriţa (home  win @1.30). Rapid is simply a better team than Gloria Bistriţa. Especially at home they must win to Gloria who won their last game, but that was at home to hopeless Municipal Studentesc. The two teams have met 14 times in Bucharest. Rapid has won 12 of them and the remaining two have ended with draws (1997 and 2007). The game starts now at 20:30 CET.

RESULTS: Win. Cash out 5.90 SEK. Total cash out 28.64. Current bankroll for next bet 50 SEK.

Round 5: The fifth placed bet is a home victory in the Fluminense-RJ – Atlético-GO game in Brazil tonight. The odds is 1.33 and that is good in my opinion. In the last ten games the home team has seven victories, three draws, and no losses. The away team has one victory, five draws, and four losses. Thus, the stats suggest that there is a small risk for a draw, but I think Fluminense is simply too good. The game starts at 23:30 CET.

RESULTS: Lost (1-2).  Thus total cah out 8,64 SEK more than the initial stake. The snowball should have survived a couple of more rounds to become big.

LESSON LEARNED: This was a reminder that you should not bet on the favourite in Brasilian football. It is way to unpredictable in their top leagues. I saw most of the game last night and Flu was incredible bad in my opinion. They created some chances, especially towards the end, but still couldn’t outplay the team from the bottom of the league.

From → Snowballs

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