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Sweden – Ukraine U21 (and a must bet on FC Nitra)

September 10, 2012

This has become a betting blog the last couple of weeks. I’ll hope I will do some proper non-betting based analysis later this week. Here are some thoughts about live betting strategies though.

Sweden U21 met Ukraine U21 today and the Swedish betting pundits on Twitter bet big on a Swedish win to a good odds (I got 2.40). Early in the game Sweden had a 2-0 lead and they hold it far into the second half. To my surprise many of the pundits placed live bets around minute 70 that Sweden would score the next goal (if any goal would fall at all, if not the bet is cancelled). The odds was around 1.85 for each team to score.

There are of course different strategies in betting, but in my opinion these type of bets are just wrong. If you bet one unit on a Swedish win at (say) 2.40 pre-game and then is offered 1.85 for a Ukrainian goal when Sweden is two goals ahead that is the bet where you should place another unit (or slightly more to fully “save” your original bet). If there are no more goals (perhaps most likely) you get that investment back and overall get 3.40 units back (+1.40), if Sweden score you loose your second bet but still get 2.40 units back (+0.40). If Ukraine score twice and equalise you have saved your original bet and only loose 0.15 units. Finally, and what actually happened in this particular game, if Ukraine only score once you win in both your bets. For this example you would get 4.25 units back (+2.25).

I fully understand people who think that you should not bet live at all when you already placed a bet before the game, but there are great benefits to this type of strategies. Of course it is easy to be wise after the event, but in my opinion it is often better to “save” your original bet, but to do that with a bet that might result with an even bigger final win.

——–

Let me end with a great odds that Michael @Stoppoloss found. More about it here. On Friday FC Nitra, sixth in the Slovakian league, play the jumbo team Spartak Trnava at home. To our surprise you can get well over 2.00 for a home win from a number of places. Perhaps there is information that I and Michael aren’t aware of, but for us this is a must bet. My suggestion is to place it as soon as possible, since there is a risk that the odds will go down. Scibet gives FC Nitra a 95% probability of winning!
EDIT: Apparently Nitra had three players sent of in the game (two of them rather early) and of course lost the game. The final score was 1-3.

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