Goal scoring analysis – Europa League August 30, 2012
Yesterday, 30 Europa League games took place and I decided to look at the number of goals scored once again. Like in the CL post I have only set up a table looking at the total number of goals scored in the games (and in half time) and compared averages.Click on the figures below to get better resolution, the .png format doesn’t seems to be very good…
In the 30 games played, 82 goals were scored in the first round and 98 in the second round. In the first round 54.9% of the goals were scored in the second half. In the second round this number was significantly higher, 65.3% of the goals were scored in the second half. Thus, my hypothesis of more goals in the second leg – and especially in the second half of the second leg – is in line with the results from the 30 Europa League games considered here.
My goal with these investigations is to find a betting strategy that will give money in the long run. I will do much more advanced studies later, but for now I only investigated if you would make money if you would put in bets on over 1.5, 2.5, 3.5, or 4.5 goals in each game (odds from Unibet). Interestingly, I found that you would make money if you bet over 3.5 and/or 4.5 goals in every game.
If you bet 1 unit (say $1) on over 4.5 goals in each game you would make 8.8 units altogether ($8.8)! I believe that the main reason for this is that the quality of the teams differs much in many games in this early stage in the competition. I will later investigate further how match odds are associated with the number of goals scored in the game and if I can find a strategy to bet on over X goals, based purely on match odds.
It should of course also be mentioned that the winnings will increase if you compare odds from different sites. I restrict myself to Unibet her for convenience. If you could find a strategy to go plus from Unibet odds only, that strategy will improve significantly if you compare sites when you actually place your bets.